Senior Expert – Climate Change Mitigation Modelling for Tanzania's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)

A fully calibrated, documented and nationally owned set of long-term low-emission scenarios for the United Republic of Tanzania, comprising: a GHG baseline and BAU scenario; sector-specific net-zero-by-2050 pathways covering energy, transport, AFOLU, industry, waste, blue economy and human settlements, with explicit treatment of AFOLU carbon sequestration and nature-based solutions, cost-benefit, macro-economic and just-transition analyses, an assessment of the adaptation, biodiversity and investment implications of alternative pathways, including nature-positive investments and Article 6 carbon market opportunities; and a structured capacity-transfer to NCMC and VPO-DoE. Together, these outputs form the quantitative backbone of Tanzania's LT-LEDS, integrated as modelling annexes into the strategy document under the leadership of the VPO-DoE and the LT-LEDS lead consultant/consortium, supporting Tanzania's transition towards a climate-resilient, net-zero and nature-positive economy by 2050.

Dodoma, Tanzania

116 working days spread over 12 months, from 30/09/2026 to 30/09/2027.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the United Nations systems designated entity for addressing environmental issues at the global and regional level. Its mandate is to coordinate the development of environmental policy consensus by keeping the global environment under review and bringing emerging issues to the attention of governments and the international community for action. The NDC Act & Invest project is a global UNEP-led project funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and the Partnership Action Fund (PAF) of the NDC Partnership. It aims to support countries in raising their climate ambition and translating their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0), submitted in 2025, into concrete, financeable implementation plans, and in strengthening alignment between short-term NDC commitments and long-term low-emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). Under Article 4.19 of the Paris Agreement, the Government of the United Republic of Tanzania, through the Vice-President's Office – Division of Environment (VPO-DoE), is developing its first Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS). The Long-Term Vision (LTV) and Roadmap for the LT-LEDS were validated by the VPO in 2025 (with support from 2050 Pathways and CAN Tanzania) and define the country's overarching net-zero direction, sectoral aspirations to 2050 and the architecture of the forthcoming LT-LEDS. Tanzania's updated NDC 3.0, pending Inter-Ministerial Technical Committee (IMTC) approval ahead of submission to the UNFCCC, has been informed by the LTV and will serve as the immediate short-term anchor of the LT-LEDS. The full quantitative LT-LEDS will be developed under VPO-DoE leadership, in line with the overarching Terms of Reference for the development of Tanzania's LT-LEDS. The Government has requested technical assistance to support this work. UNEP, through NDC Act & Invest, has been confirmed to support a defined component of this process, specifically the quantitative modelling and scenario analysis required to translate the LTV into evidence-based long-term pathways. UNEP's contribution to this work will focus on the technical modelling building blocks (Work Package 2 of the LTV Roadmap: "Scenario Modelling and Quantitative Analysis"). Against this background, UNEP intends to mobilise a Senior Expert in Climate Change Mitigation Modelling to lead the modelling and quantitative analysis underpinning Tanzania's LT-LEDS. The Expert will work in close collaboration with the VPO-DoE, the National Carbon Monitoring Centre (NCMC), the NDC Implementation Secretariat, sector ministries, and the broader LT-LEDS lead consultant/consortium once mobilised, ensuring that the modelling outputs feed directly into the national strategy. Beyond its analytical dimension, this assignment is designed to reflect the integrated net-zero, nature-positive, resilience and investment-planning objectives emerging from Tanzania's national process, and to strengthen the link between the modelling work and the LT-LEDS policy, finance, Article 6 and national implementation agenda, in alignment with the objectives of the Net-Zero Nature-Positive (NZNP) Accelerator. Accordingly, the tasks set out below are framed to ensure that the modelling outputs are translated into actionable sectoral transition pathways, fully capture the country's significant AFOLU and carbon sequestration potential, assess emerging Article 6 and carbon-market opportunities, and quantify the investment needs required to implement the identified pathways. Taken together, these elements position the assignment not as a purely analytical exercise but as a strategic tool for informing policy decisions, mobilising climate and nature finance, supporting implementation planning, and reinforcing the overall credibility and usefulness of the LT-LEDS as a long-term development and investment framework. The Senior Modelling Expert will contribute directly to the achievement of Work Package 2 ("Scenario Modelling and Quantitative Analysis") of Tanzania's LTV Roadmap, providing the quantitative evidence base required by the LT-LEDS lead consultant/consortium and the VPO-DoE to formulate strategic priorities and policy options. The expected results below correspond to the main milestones of the work plan, each with performance indicators. Result 1: Methodology and inception and modelling architecture defined and validated o Activity 1.1: Review the validated LTV, the LTV Roadmap, the draft LT-LEDS ToRs ( as adopted in January 2026), the NDC 3.0 and existing sectoral plans (FYDP III, NCCRS, NAP, NBSAP, Vision 2050, Zanzibar Vision 2050, etc), together with relevant ongoing UNEP-supported field programmes in Tanzania, notably the GCF-financed “Building Climate Resilience in the Landscapes of Kigoma Region” project and the GEF-financed “Upscaling Ecosystem-based Adaptation in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem” project (executed by the VPO), and identify modelling-relevant data and policy gaps. o Activity 1.2: Propose a modelling architecture and tool selection (e.g. LEAP, TIMES, RDM, or other), including spatially explicit nature-related modelling tools (e.g. InVEST), which operate differently from traditional energy-system models such as LEAP and TIMES and therefore need to be considered from the outset to fully capture nature-positive outcomes and a macro-economic model (e.g. CGE or system dynamics) for the economy-wide and just-transition analysis, with justification, full disclosure of any proprietary software, licensing and access requirements (and their cost implications for national institutions), and a description of how outputs from the nature, energy-system and macro-economic models will be integrated, including indicators aligned with the LTV sectoral questions (Table 4 of the LTV that will be shared with the selected expert) and with UNFCCC LT-LEDS reporting good practice. o Activity 1.3: Define data requirements, including nature-related data such as land-use/land-cover maps and ecosystem condition and biodiversity indicators (drawing where relevant on datasets generated by the ongoing UNEP-supported ecosystem-based adaptation projects in the Kigoma and Greater Serengeti landscapes) sectoral coverage, time horizon, spatial resolution, and engagement protocol with NCMC, VPO-DoE, sector ministries and the LT-LEDS lead consultant/consortium. o Activity 1.4: Submit a methodology, an Inception Report and present it to a kick-off technical meeting convened by the VPO-DoE. Deliverables o Deliverable 1: Inception and methodology report (modelling component), documenting the selected modelling suite (energy-system, spatially explicit nature-related and macro-economic tools), validated by the National LT-LEDS Technical Working Groups (VPO-DoE, TFS, MoE, NCMC and other relevant sector institutions) and endorsed by VPO-DoE. Result 2: GHG baseline and BAU scenario established o Activity 2.1: Compile, clean and harmonize sectoral activity data, emission factors, socio-economic drivers and nature-related data (such as land-use/land-cover maps and ecosystem condition and biodiversity indicators), in coordination with NCMC and the National Inventory team. o Activity 2.2: Reconstruct a GHG baseline (most recent inventory year) and a BAU scenario to 2050 by sector, energy, transport, AFOLU (with explicit treatment of LULUCF as a sink), industry, waste, blue economy and human settlements, in line with IPCC 2006 Guidelines and 2019 Refinement, and establish a complementary nature-related baseline (ecosystem extent and condition) drawing on the SEEA Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EA) framework or an equivalent approach, to enable assessment of whether the modelled pathways are nature-positive. o Activity 2.3: Document data sources, assumptions, limitations and uncertainty, and propose a risk and uncertainty register to be maintained throughout the assignment. o Activity 2.4: Validate the baseline and BAU through a technical workshop with relevant stakeholders led by VPO-DoE. Deliverables Deliverable 2: Baseline and BAU calibration report and modelling files, covering the GHG baseline, the BAU scenario and a complementary nature-related baseline (ecosystem extent and condition, drawing on SEEA EA or an equivalent framework). Result 3: Long-term low-emission and net-zero-by-2050 scenarios developed o Activity 3.1: Develop the sectors and sub-sectors specific net-zero-by-2050 scenarios, the general net zero scenario, and explore key uncertainties through sensitivity analysis, drawing on Robust Decision Making (RDM) or equivalent approaches as appropriate; o Activity 3.1a: Develop sectoral decarbonization pathways for priority sectors, including energy, transport, industry, waste, AFOLU, blue economy and human settlements, identifying sector-specific transition milestones, technology options and emissions reduction trajectories consistent with Tanzania Vision 2050, the LT-LEDS and NDC 3.0, and collectively supporting a nature-positive trajectory at the aggregate national level while ensuring that all sectors 2050 assumptions and trajectories avoid nature degradation o Activity 3.2: Identify short-, medium- and long-term mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage milestones up to 2050, consistent with NDC 3.0 commitments and the LTV sectoral aspirations. o Activity 3.3: Quantify mitigation and adaptation potentials across the priority sectors, with explicit treatment of nature-positive options (forest protection and restoration, clean cooking, blue carbon) in line with the Net Zero Nature Positive Accelerator Project (NZNP), implemented through Tanzania Forest Services (TFS) with UNDP support. o Activity 3.3a : Assess AFOLU mitigation and carbon sequestration potential, including forests, mangroves, restoration, sustainable agriculture and other nature-based solutions, and quantify their contribution to long-term net-zero pathways, drawing where relevant on the restoration and land-use interventions of the ongoing UNEP-supported adaptation projects in the Kigoma and Greater Serengeti landscapes. o Activity 3.4: Map ongoing international cooperation and climate finance initiatives relevant to the modelled pathways. o Activity 3.4a: Assess opportunities and implications associated with Article 6 cooperative approaches and carbon market mechanisms, including priority sectors, potential mitigation outcomes, corresponding adjustment considerations and alignment with national climate objectives. Deliverables Deliverable 3: Scenario modelling report, sectoral decarbonization pathways that are nature positive, aligned with the NDC 3.0, AFOLU and carbon sequestration assessments, Article 6 opportunity analysis, milestones, sensitivities and uncertainty discussion. Result 4: Cost-benefit, macro-economic and just-transition assessment o Activity 4.1: Conduct cost-benefit and co-benefit analyses of the proposed pathways and measures (mitigation cost, abated emissions, social and environmental co-benefits). o Activity 4.2: Carry out a macro-economic assessment of pathway implementation: GDP, employment, trade balance, energy security, air quality, gender, to support a just-transition framing consistent with the LTV and Vision 2050. o Activity 4.2a: Estimate indicative investment and financing needs associated with priority mitigation, adaptation and nature-positive pathways, including assessment of public, private, international climate finance and carbon market opportunities o Activity 4.2b: Undertake ecological and social impact assessments of the priority pathways and measures, in alignment with the ecological and social impact assessment work of the Net Zero Nature Positive Accelerator Project (NZNP), to identify potential adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities and to inform safeguards and mitigation measures. o Activity 4.3: Translate the quantitative results into prioritization guidance for the LT-LEDS lead consultant, in a format usable by the VPO-DoE for political and stakeholder discussion. Deliverables Deliverable 4: Ecological and Social Impact and Just Transition Analysis Note, cost-benefit and co-benefit analysis of priority pathways, macro-economic assessment (GDP, employment, trade balance, energy security, air quality, gender,etc), indicative investment and financing needs feeding the draft LT-LEDS. Result 5: National ownership through capacity transfer and integration into the LT-LEDS o Activity 5.1: Carry out a rapid capacity needs assessment (CNA) of designated technical focal points at NCMC, VPO-DoE and selected sector ministries. o Activity 5.2: Deliver a structured training programme on the sectoral calibrated model, assumptions, parameters, scenario generation, sensitivity analysis and links with the national MRV system, with practical hands-on sessions. o Activity 5.2a. Support the development of recommendations for an LT-LEDS monitoring, reporting and review framework, including linkages with the national MRV system, Enhanced Transparency Framework requirements, the NZNP forest-management and biodiversity monitoring, reporting and learning platforms, and periodic scenario updates. o Activity 5.2b: Ensure alignment and interoperability of modelling assumptions, datasets and outputs with ongoing work under the Net Zero Nature Positive Accelerator Project (NZNP), the GCF-financed Kigoma landscapes climate-resilience project and the GEF-financed Greater Serengeti ecosystem-based adaptation project, NCMC analytical systems, transparency initiatives and other relevant national planning processes. o Activity 5.3: Produce and hand over the modelling files, documented assumptions and a user guide that allows national institutions to maintain, update and run the model after the assignment ends. All modelling files, datasets, documented assumptions, scenario outputs and associated documentation produced under this assignment shall become the property of the Government of the United Republic of Tanzania. The Expert shall prioritize open-source or freely available tools; any proprietary software or licensing requirements associated with the selected modelling suite must be disclosed at inception stage (Deliverable 1), together with the access, licensing and cost implications for national institutions after the assignment ends. o Activity 5.4: Finalize the modelling annexes integrated into the draft LT-LEDS, under the editorial leadership of the VPO-DoE and the LT-LEDS lead consultant/consortium. Deliverables Deliverable 5: Capacity transfer package and finalized LT-LEDS modelling annexes. Performance indicators : • Timely submission of all deliverables in line with the agreed work plan with the VPO. • Deliverables meet high standards of quality, technical accuracy and policy relevance, assessed through peer review and supervision. • Evidence of effective stakeholder engagement and integration of feedback from VPO-DoE, NCMC, sector ministries and the LT-LEDS lead consortium into the modelling outputs. • Demonstrated capacity transfer to NCMC and VPO-DoE technical focal points (signed-off training records and operational model handover). • Modelling outputs effectively used in the draft and final LT-LEDS document, including modelling annexes prepared in agreement with the VPO-DoE.

o Advanced university degree (master’s or equivalent) in climate change, energy or environmental engineering, environmental economics, energy systems, integrated assessment modelling, or a closely related field. A PhD is an advantage. o A minimum of 12 years of progressively responsible professional experience in climate change mitigation modelling, long-term low-emission strategy development, or NDC/LT-LEDS preparation, of which at least 8 years specifically in integrated, energy-system or sectoral GHG modelling. o Demonstrated hands-on experience with at least one widely used modelling platform — LEAP, TIMES (MARKAL), GCAM, MESSAGE, OSeMOSYS, etc, and familiarity with land-use and AFOLU emissions modelling approaches, as well as with spatially explicit nature-related models (e.g. InVEST) and macro-economic models (e.g. CGE or system dynamics). o Documented experience applying Robust Decision Making (RDM) or equivalent decision-making-under-deep-uncertainty methods to long-term climate or energy planning is a strong asset. o Proven track record in producing GHG baselines and BAU scenarios consistent with IPCC 2006 Guidelines (and 2019 Refinement) and in cost-benefit / macro-economic assessment of mitigation pathways. o Prior involvement in the elaboration of an LT-LEDS, an LTS, an updated NDC, a national net-zero pathway or a comparable national long-term climate strategy is required (please cite the assignment(s) and the country/countries concerned in the application). o Substantive experience working in Sub-Saharan Africa is required experience in the United Republic of Tanzania or in the East African Community (EAC) region is a strong asset. o Demonstrated experience working closely with governments, national statistical offices, climate change focal points, and development partners (UNEP, UNDP, NDC Partnership, IKI, 2050 Pathways, AGNES, GIZ, GGGI, etc.) is an advantage. o Experience in designing and delivering capacity-building activities on modelling tools for national institutions is required.

o Fluency in English (oral and written) is required, including the ability to produce publication-quality technical reports.

Not available.